Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s daily maximum on 2 August will be judged against the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” reading, so the contract is really a bet on the hottest one-tenth of a degree recorded before the midday settlement cut-off. The current crowd-implied 0% YES looks far below the live Polymarket board, where the main temperature buckets are clustered around 27°C and 28°C, suggesting traders see a materially warmer outcome than a zero-priced result. In practical terms, a 0% quote is more consistent with a fat-tail misprice than with any stable consensus, especially when the market’s own distribution has already assigned meaningful weight across the upper-20s. [3][2]

Historical context points away from an extreme reading. Hong Kong’s August climatology is typically hot and humid rather than record-breaking, and published August forecasts commonly sit in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with cloud, showers and thunderstorms often limiting the day’s peak. The Observatory’s recent reporting also shows 2026 has already produced multiple very hot days, including a 34.3°C reading that was the year’s highest so far, so traders are not looking at an unusually cool baseline for the season. That said, for this market the key comparison is not the month’s average but whether a single afternoon spike clears the relevant bucket, which is why the trading range around 27°C-28°C remains the most informative signal. [1][13][18]

The main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s short-range forecast updates, any thunderstorm or typhoon warnings, and the timing of the final daily extract publication, because the contract cannot resolve until the data is posted and later revisions do not count. A forecast shift towards stronger cloud cover or convective rain would cap the maximum temperature bucket, while clearer, sunnier conditions would push the upper end of the distribution higher. Traders should also watch the regional readings page and the Observatory’s daily bulletin cadence, since the market settles on the observed maximum in Hong Kong, not a citywide weather app estimate. [9][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.