Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to whichever temperature range bracket contains that official reading, with settlement contingent on the Observatory publishing its daily extract data for that date.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical records show daily maxima in mid-August cluster between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme outliers rare. The 30-year average for 15 August sits near 32.5°C. Tropical cyclone activity represents the primary variable capable of depressing temperatures significantly below the seasonal norm, though such systems typically bring heavy rainfall rather than cool conditions. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be specified or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clarification of the exact temperature brackets available at settlement.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a standard lag of several days, meaning final resolution cannot occur until mid-to-late August 2026 at earliest. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional weather services during early-to-mid August, as any system tracking toward Hong Kong would be the only realistic catalyst for temperatures deviating materially from the 31–34°C band. Atmospheric pressure patterns and monsoon intensity in the preceding weeks will also influence whether conditions favour above-average or below-average heat on the specific date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.