Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 13 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their daily climate extract. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically releases final readings within hours of the observation period ending. This market resolves to a specific temperature range once the "Absolute Daily Max" figure is confirmed to one decimal place.

August represents the peak of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32 and 35 degrees Celsius. The Observatory's records from recent Augusts show considerable year-to-year variation: 2023 saw a high of 34.5°C on 13 August, whilst 2022 recorded 33.1°C on the same date. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until nearer-term weather models become available. Cross-platform comparison shows minimal divergence—Kalshi and Polymarket both reflect minimal activity at present, typical for weather contracts more than a year in advance.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any updates to the El Niño Southern Oscillation index, which influences Western Pacific summer temperatures. The Observatory publishes monthly climate outlooks that typically become more precise 30 days ahead of the target date. Typhoon activity in early August 2026 could materially affect conditions; whilst tropical cyclones sometimes bring cooler air masses, they can also trigger extreme heat in their periphery. Current atmospheric indices and June 2026 seasonal models will provide the first substantive trading signals.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.