Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's peak daily temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data publication may extend beyond the market's closure. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

August represents Hong Kong's hottest month climatologically, with mean daily maxima around 31–32°C and historical extremes frequently exceeding 35°C. The 11th falls within the peak summer period when monsoon circulation and urban heat effects combine to drive afternoon temperatures upward. Historical records show substantial day-to-day volatility in August; the difference between consecutive daily maxima can exceed 3°C depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea. This variability explains why single-day temperature predictions carry inherent uncertainty even in summer months.

The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market's current illiquidity rather than meteorological consensus. No major weather forecasts have been published for August 2026 at this distance; operational forecasting becomes reliable only 10–14 days ahead. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks (typically issued in June) and any El Niño or La Niña developments that might influence regional temperature patterns. Cross-platform comparison shows minimal activity on competing venues, suggesting this contract remains largely unpriced rather than genuinely expected to resolve outside all temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.