Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official “Absolute Daily Max”, not by the hottest reading anywhere in the territory. That distinction matters because the observatory’s headquarters can run cooler than inland or northern districts, and recent coverage shows a sharp split between the official citywide record at 36.9C and much higher local readings, including 39.8C in Sheung Shui during the latest heat event.[1][15]

For context, August in Hong Kong is normally hot but not record-breaking: the 1991–2020 climate normal for 10 August puts the daily maximum at 31.4C, while 2024 and 2025 both saw relatively elevated August heat, with the observatory’s mean daily maximum around 32.3C in August 2024 and 34.4C on 10 August 2025 at the observatory station.[4][13][3] That makes the current 0% YES implied probability look notably detached from the recent temperature regime; on comparable hot-day setups, temperature markets tend to price in at least some chance of the upper bands unless a cooler forecast dominates.

The main catalysts are the observable forecast track, any updated Hong Kong Observatory warnings, and whether cloud, rain or typhoon-adjacent subsidence changes the afternoon peak before the day closes at 12:00Z. Short-range private forecasts are already warm, with highs around 95–98F, but they vary on how much shower activity arrives later in the day, which is the key swing factor for the settlement reading.[2][7][10] The market can only resolve once the Observatory publishes the final Daily Extract, so traders will be watching both the live hourly readings and the finalised bulletin rather than mid-day headlines.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.