Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s **5 August high** is being priced against a forecast for hot, humid summer conditions rather than an outright heatwave breakout. AccuWeather’s August outlook puts daily highs around **89°F to 93°F** (about **32°C to 34°C**), while other tourist-oriented forecast pages point to a **35°C**-type ceiling on 5 August; the crowd is currently concentrating on the **34°C-35°C** buckets rather than the lower or upper tails.[1][13][15]

That is broadly consistent with Guangzhou’s climatology: August is typically one of the city’s hottest months, with average highs near **33°C to 35°C** depending on the source, but heavy rainfall and cloud cover often restrain the day’s peak.[4][15][18] The market’s current 0% yes signal looks materially lower than both the published forecast range and the historical August baseline, so the relevant comparison is less “will it be hot?” and more whether the airport station prints **34°C, 35°C, or 36°C+**. Polymarket’s own order book shows **35°C** leading at **43%**, ahead of **34°C** at **24%** and **36°C** at **21%**, which is the sort of spread you would expect when traders are balancing model heat against convective rain risk.[8]

For catalysts, the key watchpoint is the airport station’s observed maximum through the settlement window, with the contract resolving from Wunderground’s Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport record rather than a citywide average.[8] Today’s live forecasts still lean hot, but radar and hourly guidance also show a meaningful thunderstorm chance and variable cloud cover, which can cap the afternoon high if showers arrive on time.[10][11] The main dependency is therefore not a policy or schedule event, but the timing of convection: a later-than-expected rain band would push the outcome towards the 35°C side, while earlier cloudbursts would favour 33°C-34°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.