Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station is already running hot and humid, with live observations around 30°C and very high humidity, which matters because this contract settles on the *day’s peak* temperature rather than the mean or the evening reading.[7] For 4 August, commercial forecasters cluster around a high-20s to low-30s outcome, with some calling for roughly 32°C and others allowing for 33°C to 35.5°C, while rain is also flagged in several forecasts.[1][3][10][13][14]

That backdrop makes the crowd-implied **0% YES** look extremely pessimistic versus the published forecast range. On the available numbers, the market is pricing a result below the contract’s higher temperature bands, even though the consensus weather view is that Guangzhou is in its hottest stretch of the year, where August normals are about 33°C to 35°C for daytime highs and rain is common rather than a reliable cap on maximum temperature.[5][9][10][15] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather models and travel forecasts are not aligned with a zero-priced event, suggesting the contract is trading at a much steeper discount than the broader forecast consensus.

The main catalysts are the afternoon heating profile, cloud cover and shower timing at Baiyun Airport, because a brief dry and sunny window can still push the day’s maximum into a higher band before rain arrives. Traders should also watch the airport station readings through the day, since the contract resolves to the highest temperature recorded there on 4 August via Wunderground, not to a citywide forecast average.[1][7] If forecast updates continue to lean towards 32°C to 35°C, the current market price would remain hard to justify on fundamentals alone.[1][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.