Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s hottest reading on 9 August 2026 is already sitting in the upper 90s to around 100°F, so the market is really about which exact bucket Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* table puts the day’s peak into. Polymarket’s own contract page says traders have converged on **98–99°F at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport** as the leading outcome, while the crowd-implied price on the contract currently shows **0% YES**, an obvious disconnect between the broad outcome view and the binary framing of the position being quoted.[2] WeatherSpark’s historical feed for Dallas shows a late-evening KDAL reading of **96.1°F**, which is consistent with a hot day that still may not have fully finished its daily maximum by the time the market snapshot was taken.[1]

For comparison, the main historical analogue is a late-summer Dallas day where the difference between a mid-to-upper-90s finish and a 100°F-plus finish depends on the last afternoon observation, not the headline summary value. AccuWeather’s monthly forecast for Dallas had **100°F** as the forecast high for 9 August and **101°F** for 10 August, which fits a pattern of sustained heat rather than a sharp break.[4] The National Weather Service’s Dallas-area forecast page showed mostly fair conditions and an updated short-range outlook on the morning of 9 August, which is the kind of setup that often leaves the final maximum close to model guidance but still dependent on the last few hourly observations.[6]

Traders should watch the timing of the final Weather Underground update, because this contract resolves off the *Daily Observations* table and only until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[5] That makes the key dependency not a later headline forecast, but whether the station’s late-afternoon or early-evening reading edges into a higher range before the daily record is locked in. The wider market comparison is also uneven: the public Polymarket page is showing a near-unanimous view on a 98–99°F print, while the quoted 0% YES implies either a very specific strike mismatch or a stale pricing read, rather than a broadly contested temperature outlook.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.