Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is the settlement point for this contract, and the market is about the **single highest temperature** logged there on 3 August, not the daily average. With the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**, the market is pricing the contract as very unlikely to land in the relevant temperature band, although no sportsbook line is quoted here to cross-check against that view.

Seasonally, August in Chongqing is normally hot enough that the question is less whether the city reaches the low 30s than whether it pushes into the mid-30s. Recent climate guides put typical August highs around **34°C** and daily ranges in the **low-to-mid 30s Celsius**, while broader climate averages show August as the hottest or near-hottest month in the city[2][9][15][19]. That historical backdrop matters because airport readings are often a shade lower than dense urban neighbourhoods, but still frequently sit in the same heat regime; on that basis, an outright zero per cent market implies a very strong view that today’s airport maximum will miss the contract’s chosen range.

For traders, the key dependencies are the day’s actual airport observations and how Wunderground records the maximum for the station before the settlement window closes. The market resolves from the **Wunderground history page** for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, so late-afternoon heat, cloud cover, rain bands and any thunderstorms that suppress the daytime peak are the main live catalysts to watch[1]. There is no fresh analyst consensus in the materials provided, so the meaningful comparison is between the market’s near-zero pricing and the climatological expectation that August still supports temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s[2][9][19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.