Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s **10 August** high is trading against a very hot local climatology, but the market is not pricing a record breaker: Polymarket’s leading outcome is **35°C at 41%**, with **34°C at 36%**, while the contract’s crowd-implied **0% YES** on the settlement condition suggests the relevant strike band is not viewed as reachable. That contrasts with the underlying seasonal profile, where August is typically Chongqing’s hottest month and long-run August highs cluster around the mid-30s Celsius, with extreme peaks above 40°C occurring only in exceptional heatwaves.[3][8][11][13][18]

The nearest historical analogue is a broad pattern rather than a single date: August in Chongqing often produces sticky, humid heat with afternoon maxima around **34°C**, and published climate references put typical August highs near **33.6°C to 34°C**.[4][15][16][18] Against that backdrop, a 34–35°C outcome is consistent with consensus weather-market pricing, while materially lower or higher settlement bands would usually require either cloud cover and thunderstorms suppressing the daytime peak, or a stronger-than-expected heat surge into the afternoon.[12][14] The key point for cross-platform comparison is that sportsbook-style or consensus weather forecasts generally anchor near the mid-90s Fahrenheit, whereas the prediction market is showing a tighter clustering around 34–35°C rather than a broad upside tail.[1][12][14]

Traders should watch the live forecast updates, not just the calendar, because the settlement source is the **Weather Underground Daily Observations table** for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, which can differ from summary highs.[3] The current forecast already points to **95°F/79°F** with a chance of thunderstorms and high humidity, so the main catalysts are the timing and intensity of any morning or early-afternoon convection, plus whether cloud cover limits insolation before the daily maximum is logged.[12][14] If the airport observes an early spike before rain arrives, the winning temperature band can move quickly even when the headline forecast barely changes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.