Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s hottest reading on 9 August is likely to land in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anywhere close to the sort of extremes implied by a binary market priced at 0% YES. Several current forecasts cluster around a daytime high of 32–34°C, including AccuWeather at 33°C, Weather Underground-style third-party forecast pages at 32–33°C, and weather.com.cn at 34°C, while long-run August normals are nearer 30–31°C for the city. [1][4][5][6][7][15]

That makes the present crowd price look broadly in line with the contract mechanics rather than the weather itself. The market resolves from the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the site’s day-high summary, so the key question is whether the station reaches a band boundary before the noon UTC settlement cut-off. Historical August 9 data for Chengdu show record highs around 38.1°C, but typical outcomes are far lower, and comparable forecast pages repeatedly point to a ceiling near 32–34°C today. [2][10][11][19][20]

For traders comparing venues, the main cross-platform divergence is between the market’s implied probability of zero and the weather desk consensus, which still assigns meaningful odds to a low-30s Celsius outcome. No sportsbook-style line is visible in the supplied sources, but the third-party forecast consensus is not consistent with an absolute no-higher-than threshold outcome; instead it suggests a fairly standard hot August day with showers or thunderstorms possible, which can suppress peaks without eliminating a 33°C-plus print. The practical catalyst is the progression of the day’s observations at the airport station, because a late-morning or early-afternoon spike would matter more than the summary forecast icons. [4][10][14][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.