Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s hottest reading on 6 August is a straightforward late-summer temperature contract, but the current market pricing at 0% YES sits well below the broader weather backdrop. Forecasts for Busan in early August cluster around daily highs in the high 20s to upper 30s Celsius, with one source showing 6 August near 31°C and another placing Busan’s August highs around 87°F, or roughly 31°C[1][12][16]. That leaves the contract’s settlement band sensitive to any short-lived heat spike at Gimhae Intl Airport Station, rather than the ordinary daily maximum.

The historical frame is less about Busan’s average August climate than its occasional extremes. Busan’s long-run August average high is about 87°F, but the city has also posted much hotter readings in severe heat events, including 38.8°C in 2016 and a modern record since observations began in 1904[16][14]. A similar event across southeastern South Korea in 2026 saw Yangsan reach 42.5°C, showing that the region can still produce outsized peaks when heat domes build[3]. On that basis, a 0% crowd-implied probability implies traders are treating the top bucket as effectively unreachable, despite the existence of a non-zero tail risk in extreme conditions.

What matters now is whether the day’s intraday evolution at Gimhae produces a higher spike than the morning and early-afternoon forecasts suggest. Busan was already listed at 26–33°C in one regional forecast roundup, while another live current-weather feed showed mid-80s Fahrenheit conditions, which are consistent with a warm but not exceptional day[11][19]. There is no obvious event schedule that mechanically drives the reading, so traders are mostly watching the thermal profile, cloud cover, rain potential and any late updates from forecast providers; the key cross-platform divergence is that prediction-market pricing has effectively ruled out the top outcome, while the available weather forecasts still leave room for an upper-20s to low-30s Celsius result[12][15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.