Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 15 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in an extremely low likelihood of the market resolving to the highest available temperature range, though the specific threshold triggering resolution remains unspecified in the current framing.

Busan's August climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures at Gimhae typically peak between 28–32°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 34–35°C during heat waves. The 2018 heat wave saw Busan record 34.6°C on 15 August; the 2012 peak for that date was 31.8°C. The current market probability reflects either an unusually narrow resolution range or trader uncertainty about which temperature band the market operator has designated as the settlement target.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which typically indicate whether above-normal or near-normal temperatures are expected for mid-August. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift baseline expectations. The specific resolution range thresholds—currently absent from available market documentation—will determine whether the 0% probability reflects genuine consensus or incomplete information. Cross-platform comparison with Kalshi weather contracts on Korean temperatures during the same period may clarify whether this represents genuine market divergence or data specification ambiguity.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.