Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s **highest temperature** on 10 August is trading around a late-summer heat range, but the contract’s settlement source matters more than the headline forecast. Polymarket currently shows **30°C** as the leading outcome at **44%**, with **31°C** next at **33%**, while the market as a whole still leaves substantial room for a result in the low 30s rather than an extreme spike.[3]

That pricing sits broadly in line with climatology for Busan in August, when average highs are usually in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius and daily maxima often edge towards 30°C, with some historical August 10 observations reaching the mid-30s.[7][11][19] The wider cross-platform picture also points to that zone: AccuWeather’s August 10 forecast is around **28–30°C**, and timeanddate’s extended forecast is roughly **83°F/28°C** for the day, suggesting the crowd is not pricing a major deviation from seasonal norms.[4][10][15] The 0% YES figure on the contract is therefore best read as a thin market or a listing artefact rather than a genuine consensus that 30°C is impossible.[3]

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s live temperature path at **Gimhae Intl Airport Station**, because settlement uses Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low box. That makes intraday timing important: a brief midday surge, a thunderstorm boundary, or a sea-breeze cap could shift the final observation into an adjacent band even if the afternoon forecast looks stable.[10][15] Recent regional heat has also been unusually intense, with South Korea recording **42.5°C** in Yangsan earlier this month, but Busan’s coastal location usually damps the most extreme inland spikes.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.