Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by which temperature band the highest reading falls into. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing this as an unlikely outcome for whichever range the market is testing, though the specific temperature threshold being assessed remains unspecified in available documentation.

August temperatures in Beijing typically range between 25–32°C, with daily highs frequently exceeding 30°C during the peak summer season. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August readings at the airport station consistently fall within the 28–34°C band, with extreme heat events pushing towards 35°C occurring roughly once every three to four years. The 0% implied probability indicates either an extremely narrow or outlier temperature range is being priced, suggesting traders have anchored to recent seasonal patterns rather than accounting for potential heat anomalies.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable precision for Beijing. Any significant weather pattern shifts—including tropical cyclone activity affecting northern China or sustained high-pressure systems—would alter baseline expectations. The resolution methodology's emphasis on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates potential for discrepancies; traders should verify historical consistency between these two Weather Underground data sources before committing capital, as measurement timing differences can occasionally produce divergent readings.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.