Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s 5 August high at Hartsfield-Jackson is a straightforward daytime temperature settlement, but the live pricing says traders see a fairly ordinary summer distribution rather than an extreme outcome. On Polymarket, the modal buckets cluster between **82–83°F** and **84–85°F**, both at 50–96% depending on the page snapshot, while Robinhood’s climate market shows **85°F** at 67¢ and **86°F** at 51¢, implying the centre of gravity sits in the mid-80s rather than near the crowd’s 0% Yes price. That 0% reading is therefore best read as a platform-specific mismatch, not a market view that a high temperature will be impossible; the contract is still anchored to a single daily maximum, which in Atlanta can easily land in the mid-80s in early August.[1][4]

The historical frame is consistent with that range. Atlanta’s August average high is around the mid-80s, and the weather page for the month shows daily highs commonly near 89°F early in the month, with an average high of 86°F for 5 August on AccuWeather’s monthly view.[2][13] Recent local climate summaries also show Atlanta’s summer extremes can run much hotter, but those are outliers rather than the norm, which matters for interpreting whether the market is pricing a routine hot day or a heat spike.[12] For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast evolution, cloud cover, and any thunderstorm timing; the National Weather Service’s Atlanta climate products and the Wunderground history page are the settlement-relevant references, while broader metro forecasts can diverge if they are based on a different station or airport area.[3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.