Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s 1 August high is usually in the upper 80s Fahrenheit, but the distribution is wide enough that low-90s outcomes are not outliers in summer heat events. Atlanta’s August average high is about 89°F, and historical August 1 records show a long-run daily high of 99°F for that date, while broader August records have reached 104°F, which is why the far-right bins on this contract cannot be dismissed outright.[1][2][14] On the current Polymarket board, the market is clustered around 82-83°F at 27% and 84-85°F at 26%, with 86-87°F at 22% and only 1% assigned to 90-91°F, so the crowd is leaning cooler than the seasonal average rather than pricing a classic Atlanta heat spike.[3]

That leaves a clear comparison point versus any sportsbook-style line: the market is effectively saying a mid-80s reading is the modal outcome, while a consensus climate view would still treat upper-80s as more natural for early August in Atlanta.[1][14] Recent climate summaries also show Atlanta can still post 95-100°F maxima in summer, including a 95°F August 2025 high at the Atlanta climate site and a 100°F June 2024 maximum, so traders should watch for any shift in the regional heat ridge before the settlement date.[4][12] The key operational dependency is the Hartsfield-Jackson airport observation itself, because the contract settles on the highest temperature recorded there for the day on Wunderground, not on the citywide forecast or the daily afternoon peak at a different station.[16][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.