Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station will determine which temperature range this market resolves to, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity across available ranges.

Amsterdam's August climate typically produces highs between 20–24°C, with historical data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute showing that temperatures exceeding 25°C occur in roughly one-third of August days. The 0% probability reading across prediction markets indicates either that the market structure has concentrated liquidity into a single narrow range, or that traders have dismissed certain temperature thresholds as implausible. Cross-platform comparison between Polymarket and Kalshi contracts on this event would reveal whether divergence exists in how each platform's participants weight seasonal norms versus potential heat anomalies.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns through July and early August 2026, particularly high-pressure systems developing over continental Europe that could drive temperatures above the 25°C threshold. The ECMWF and GFS forecast models, typically updated fortnightly through mid-August, will provide the most actionable signals for reassessing probability distributions. Any significant deviation from historical August temperature ranges in the preceding weeks could prompt repricing, though the current 0% reading suggests the market may already be locked into a consensus view that warrants verification against emerging meteorological data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.