Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question concerns the peak temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 15 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market will resolve to whichever temperature band contains the highest reading captured at the station that day, with the Daily Observations dataset taking precedence over summary figures should any discrepancy arise.

Amsterdam's August temperatures historically cluster between 18–24°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 28°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than meteorological implausibility; August mid-month conditions in the Netherlands typically favour moderate warmth without extreme heat. Comparable European prediction markets on summer temperatures have shown crowd probabilities drift sharply once seasonal forecasts materialise, particularly when extended-range models from KNMI or Météo-France signal anomalies. Historical August records at Schiphol reach into the low 30s Celsius during heat waves, though such events occur irregularly.

Traders should monitor ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts released in late July and early August, which will provide the most actionable signal for temperature trajectory. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or heat dome affecting northern Europe in early-to-mid August would shift probabilities materially. Current sportsbook equivalents and analyst consensus remain sparse for this specific contract, leaving the 0% implied probability largely uncontested across platforms. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, creating a narrow window for final observations to be recorded and verified through Wunderground's official station data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.