Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

A preliminary peace memorandum between the United States and Iran has been electronically authorised by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, ending active hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This accord, signed at the G7 summit in Versailles, commits both nations to a 60-day negotiation window for a final deal, with Trump’s core condition—Iran’s non-procurement of nuclear weapons—explicitly reaffirmed. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled for a ceremonial signing in Geneva this Friday, confirming the agreement is fully signed on the US side.

Historically, similar high-stakes frameworks, such as the 2015 JCPOA, required years of technical negotiation before final ratification, often collapsing under political shifts or unmet verification standards. The current 3% crowd-implied probability reflects this precedent: while the memorandum halts immediate conflict, the path to a binding agreement signed by the listed individual in an official capacity remains fraught with uncertainty, especially given Israel’s exclusion from talks and unresolved issues on ballistic missiles. Analyst consensus suggests the deal’s financial concessions to Iran, including a $300 billion reconstruction fund, may face legislative hurdles, further dampening odds of finalisation by July 2026.

Traders should monitor Vance’s Geneva meeting, the release of the deal’s full text, and any US legislative responses to the sanctions waiver for Iranian oil sales. Recent reporting from NBC News confirms the memorandum’s 14-point structure includes unfreezing billions in Iranian assets, yet Tehran’s insistence on post-60-day transit fees for the Hormuz Strait could derail final terms. With the settlement window ending 1 August 2026, the divergence between sportsbook lines (which often overstate geopolitical breakthroughs) and the market’s cautious 3% odds highlights the fragility of this interim accord.

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Methodology

We track Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.