Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 1% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the presidency before 31 July 2026, according to the current Polymarket consensus. This figure sits sharply below Kalshi’s earlier estimate of nearly 28.7% for impeachment and removal in his second term, highlighting a notable divergence between prediction platforms and underscoring how rapidly sentiment can shift as political realities crystallise [1][3].

Historically, US presidents have rarely been removed before their term ends; Nixon resigned amid impeachment pressure, while Clinton and Trump were impeached but not convicted by the Senate. Conviction requires a two-thirds majority, which remains unlikely as long as Republicans retain Senate control, making removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment improbable under current conditions [2][7]. The 1% probability reflects this structural barrier, aligning with analyst consensus that permanent removal is not a near-term expectation.

Traders should monitor House impeachment inquiry developments, Senate composition, and any public statements from Vice President Vance or Cabinet members regarding the 25th Amendment. Recent reports note impeachment probability rose sharply from 22.1% in April to 28.7% in early July, suggesting volatility remains possible if Democratic momentum in the House intensifies [1]. With the settlement window closing in 2026, any formal announcement of resignation or removal before that date would immediately resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of when the action takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.