National Bank Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs Amanda Anisimova

Platform comparison

Market context

Lanlana Tararudee faces Amanda Anisimova in the National Bank Open second round, and the market’s current 50% crowd view sits well below the pricing suggested by the wider tennis data. Official match listings put Tararudee at world No. 78 and Anisimova at No. 9, with Tennis.com also showing the same ranking gap; that is usually a substantial separator in a WTA hard-court match.[2][10] Third-party model data points even more strongly towards Anisimova, with String Tension’s Elo model giving her an 88.2% win probability and implied odds of about -745, while its 2026 season comparison shows Anisimova ahead in overall record, serve quality and return efficiency.[7]

For context, there is no tour-level head-to-head between the pair, so traders have to lean on form, ranking and surface splits rather than direct history.[1][7] That matters because Tararudee’s results profile is still relatively thin at tour level, whereas Anisimova has a much longer resume and, according to Flashscore’s French feed, has been strong in National Bank Open opener-type situations and has posted a 17-2 run against opponents outside the top 50 since June 2026.[6] On that basis, the prediction market’s 50% implied probability looks closer to a volatility discount than a true coin flip, especially versus the more decisive book/model consensus.

The main catalysts are simple: whether the match is actually played on schedule, and whether the listed August 5 Toronto slot holds after the usual WTA session reshuffles.[2][4] If there is a late court change, postponement or walkover, the settlement rules become more important than the tennis itself because a match not completed within the allowed window resolves 50-50. Robinhood’s related set-market snapshot also shows Anisimova heavily favoured in-play at 89¢, which is consistent with live books treating her as the clear side once the match starts.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.