National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek

Platform comparison

Market context

Iga Swiatek’s meeting with Sara Bejlek has opened with the contract pricing Bejlek at **0% YES** in the crowd view, which is far more extreme than the on-court evidence. Swiatek beat Bejlek 6-2, 6-3 at Roland Garros in May 2026, giving her a 1-0 head-to-head edge and a straight-sets win on the only completed meeting between them[1][3][15]. Independent preview work for the Toronto match also had Swiatek as the clear favourite, with Tennis Tonic listing her at 1.099 versus 6.9 for Bejlek, while the same preview noted the pair had not previously met on hard courts[16]. That gap between a near-certain prediction-market price and a conventional sportsbook-style outlook is the main divergence to watch.

Recent form data still points to a lopsided matchup: Swiatek’s 2026 win rate and last-12-month record remain materially stronger than Bejlek’s, and the Roland Garros scoreline showed Swiatek winning the key pressure points despite a messy baseline stat line[1][6][11][15]. For traders, the main catalysts are procedural rather than tactical: the match was originally scheduled for 4 August at 12:30pm ET, so any late schedule change, court assignment update, or withdrawal notice can move the contract quickly because the settlement rules treat an unplayed match, or one delayed beyond seven days without a winner, as a 50-50 outcome[14][16]. With the settlement window running to 11 August 2026, the relevant risk is not just who is better, but whether the contest is actually completed within that timeframe.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.