Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas

Platform comparison

Market context

Andre Ilagan’s match with Edas Butvilas in Lexington is the underlying event, and the market’s **0% YES** price implies near-complete scepticism that the contract will resolve to Ilagan. That is notably lower than the sort of prices implied by pre-match bookmaker lines in comparable lower-tier ATP Challenger fixtures, where sides are often much closer to coin-flip territory; Tennis Tonic’s June meeting in Tyler had Butvilas at 1.58 and Ilagan at 2.20, yet Ilagan won 2-0, which is a useful reminder that short-form Challenger pricing can swing hard on surface, form and availability rather than any stable head-to-head edge.[8][11] The direct history between the two is limited but currently favours Ilagan 1-0 in meetings, with H2H pages also showing Ilagan ahead on sets and recent form metrics that are at least competitive for both players.[1][3][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are whether the Lexington draw is still intact, whether the match is actually started on schedule, and whether either player withdraws or the event is reshuffled beyond the seven-day settlement window. Sofascore and LiveScore-style listings indicate the fixture was set for 9 August 2026, but markets tied to Challenger events can be sensitive to same-day delays, walkovers and late court changes, especially when one side has already been listed in live scoring feeds.[2][10][13] The key cross-platform check is therefore whether sportsbook pricing, live match status and the contract’s settlement rules all continue to point to a completed result rather than a cancellation pathway to 50-50.[2][10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.