Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Livesport Prague Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Valentina Ryser. This market refers to the tennis match between Rebeka Masarova and Valentina Ryser in the Livesport Prague Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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