France vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup quarter-final between France and England, scheduled for 18 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, will settle this contract on the exact score after 90 minutes, excluding extra time and penalties. With the crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sitting at 4% YES, traders are pricing in a narrow margin for a precise result, reflecting the inherent volatility of elite international football where single-goal swings dominate.

Historically, France and England have produced tight, low-scoring encounters in major tournaments, with recent high-stakes matches often ending in 1-0 or 1-1 finishes rather than multi-goal spectacles. The 4% probability aligns with the rarity of any single exact score in a match between two defensively organised sides, as sportsbooks typically offer odds between 20-1 for specific outcomes like 1-2 or 2-1, suggesting the prediction market is slightly more conservative than the broader sportsbook consensus on this specific contract.

Traders should monitor the final squad announcements released by both nations on 16 July, as injuries to key attackers like Kylian Mbappé or Harry Kane could drastically alter scoring probabilities. Recent reports indicate both managers are finalising their rosters ahead of the tournament knockout phase, with any late fitness concerns likely to shift odds across platforms before the settlement window closes on 18 July[2]. The Asian Handicap lines currently favour France slightly, which may influence the likelihood of specific scorelines if the match remains a tactical duel.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track France vs. England - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.