Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini Game Spread +/-5.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini. This market refers to the tennis match between Lucia Bronzetti and Luisina Giovannini in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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