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Next French Presidential Election

Five-platform snapshot of "Next French Presidential Election" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Marine Le Pen 33% Édouard Philippe 26% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14% David Lisnard 3% Volume: $120.8M Liquidity: $16.6M Closes: 30 Apr 2027
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Next French Presidential Election

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 33% 67% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 33% 67% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Marine Le Pen33%
Édouard Philippe26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
David Lisnard3%
Gabriel Attal3%
François Hollande3%
Jordan Bardella2%
Bruno Retailleau2%
Raphaël Glucksmann2%
Dominique de Villepin2%
Sarah Knafo2%
Sébastien Lecornu2%
Éric Zemmour1%
Xavier Bertrand0%
Laurent Wauquiez0%
François Ruffin0%
Marine Tondelier0%
Fabien Roussel0%
Olivier Faure0%
Ségolène Royal0%
François Asselineau0%
Clémentine Autain0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0%
Michel Barnier0%
Valérie Pécresse0%
François Bayrou0%
Élisabeth Borne0%
Yaël Braun-Pivet0%
Jean Castex0%
Gérald Darmanin0%
Carole Delga0%
Bernard Cazeneuve0%
Manuel Bompard0%
Mathilde Panot0%
Other0%
Juan Branco0%
Clémence Guetté0%
Karim Bouamrane0%
Lucie Castets0%
Yannick Jadot0%
François Baroin0%
Marion Maréchal0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
Person AB0%
Person AC0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
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Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
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Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
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Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 33% YES probability for Next French Presidential Election. The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follow…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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