Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| O/U 26.5 | 98% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 98% |
| O/U 30.5 | 97% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 34.5 | 95% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 92% |
| O/U 38.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 42.5 | 84% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 44.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| O/U 46.5 | 73% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 73% |
| O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 67% |
| O/U 49.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| O/U 50.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 62% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| O/U 51.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 58% |
| O/U 52.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| 2H Moneyline | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| O/U 60.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Lions vs. Bills | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 66.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 16% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 72.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 98% probability to lions vs. bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $7.4M.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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