Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 80% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| O/U 38.5 | 64% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 45.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Broncos vs. Chiefs — current market-implied probability: 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed,…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.4M.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Broncos vs. Chiefs on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →