New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City FC and Philadelphia Union will meet in Major League Soccer on 16 August at 6:00 PM Eastern Time. The match forms part of the regular season schedule and will settle based on the outcome of that fixture. The 0% implied probability on this contract suggests either minimal trading activity, a structural issue with the market's design, or settlement terms that traders view as unlikely to occur.

Historical precedent in MLS cross-conference matchups shows significant variance in pre-match probabilities depending on team form, injury status, and venue. NYCFC has traditionally performed better at home, whilst Philadelphia's record against Eastern Conference rivals fluctuates with squad rotation patterns typical in mid-August fixtures. Comparable markets for regular-season MLS games typically show non-zero probabilities across all outcome categories when sufficient liquidity exists, indicating that the current 0% reading warrants scrutiny of whether the market's terms align with standard settlement conventions used across major sportsbooks.

Traders should monitor team news through early August, particularly injury announcements and squad rotation decisions as both clubs manage fixture congestion. Recent MLS scheduling has compressed mid-season fixtures, affecting player availability. Sportsbook lines closer to match day will provide a benchmark for comparing prediction-market pricing; divergence between traditional odds and this contract's settlement terms may explain the absence of meaningful probability allocation. Confirmation of final team sheets and any late venue changes should be tracked through official MLS communications and club channels.

Methodology

We track New York City FC vs. Philadelphia Union - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.