CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

CF Montréal vs New England Revolution is priced by the crowd at **0% YES**, which is far below the tone of the football data around the fixture and suggests the contract has likely already been resolved or is being treated as a mispriced, stale line rather than a live 90-minute matchup bet. The most recent head-to-heads point to a New England edge overall: the Revolution won 3-0 in April 2026[6][15], while the sides split more mixed results in 2024–25, including Montréal’s 3-1 win in Foxborough in July 2025[8] and New England’s 3-0 win in Montréal in May 2025[12]. Over the longer sample, Sotra?r?d?r data show New England leading the series 18 wins to Montréal’s 14, with four draws[5].

For traders comparing platforms, the key read is that an MLS home fixture between these clubs usually does not sit anywhere near a zero-implied outcome on sportsbook-style modelling unless one side is already effectively treated as non-competitive. AP’s pre-match write-up also framed New England as the stronger side statistically, noting a 3-0 win in the first meeting, an 8-2-2 record against Eastern Conference opponents, and recent attacking production from Carles Gil and Dor David Turgeman[10]. The practical catalysts were lineup and availability news close to kick-off, especially any rest, rotation, or late injury update for Montréal’s attack or New England’s creators, but with the market window closing at 23:30 UTC on match day, any substantial divergence between prediction-market price and analyst consensus would usually have been driven by settlement timing rather than fresh pre-match information[1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.