Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 89% |
| Game 1 Winner | 82% |
| Game 2 Winner | 82% |
| Game 3 Winner | 81% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 80% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 72% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 17% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 89% probability to lol: hanwha life esports vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Hanwha Life Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
We track LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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