Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Cruz Hewitt vs Dusan Lajovic. This market refers to the tennis match between Cruz Hewitt and Dusan Lajovic in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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