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LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Live odds for "LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

Match Winner 83% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 79% Game 2 Winner 74% Game 1 Winner 73% Volume: $254K Liquidity: $544K Closes: 25 Jul 2026
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LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
83% 17% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
83% 17% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner83%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?79%
Game 2 Winner74%
Game 1 Winner73%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?66%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)56%
First Blood in Game 1?55%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
O/U 2.5 Games37%

Market context

Market consensus: 83% chance of lol: top esports vs thundertalk gaming (bo3) - lpl group ascend. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 25 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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