Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 60% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The France vs. Sweden - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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