Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 95% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Both Teams to Score | 91% |
| O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 58% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 56% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| FC Bayern München (-5.5) | 48% |
| FC Augsburg (-3.5) | 47% |
| FC Augsburg (-4.5) | 45% |
| FC Bayern München (-4.5) | 45% |
| FC Augsburg (-5.5) | 45% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| FC Bayern München (-1.5) | 30% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| FC Bayern München (-2.5) | 14% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| FC Bayern München (-3.5) | 6% |
| FC Augsburg (-1.5) | 5% |
| O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| O/U 8.5 | 2% |
| FC Augsburg (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to fc augsburg vs. fc bayern münchen - more markets. More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for October 10 at 9:30 AM ET.
Methodology
We track FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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