Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: pablo llamas ruiz vs zachary svajda. This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Zachary Svajda in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas…
Methodology
We track Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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