Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: alex de minaur vs roman andres burruchaga. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex …
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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