"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of Angel Studios’ *Young Washington*, a biographical film about a young George Washington facing war and betrayal, released July 3, 2026, for the Fourth of July holiday. Friday estimates show $7.60 million from 2,700 locations, with Box Office Mojo and IMDb confirming $7.597 million as the sole domestic figure so far [2][3][5].

Historical comparables like *Supergirl*’s 76% second-weekend collapse illustrate how opening-weekend numbers can become verdicts quickly, yet *Young Washington*’s current 0% YES probability on the prediction market diverges sharply from analyst forecasts of $23 million+ for its five-day opening [1][4]. While sportsbooks and Kalshi may not yet price this film, Polymarket’s implied probability suggests extreme skepticism despite the film’s patriotic timing and strong Friday per-location averages, a gap traders should monitor as Saturday and Sunday data finalize the three-day total.

Key catalysts include the finalisation of Saturday and Sunday box office figures by Monday, which will determine the official three-day gross (July 3–5) used for market resolution [2]. Traders should watch for any studio updates on total weekend performance, especially given the film’s Independence Day release and potential competition from *Minions & Monsters*, which is forecast to dominate with $95 million [4][7]. No major announcements are pending, but the shift from Friday estimates to finalised numbers will be the decisive factor.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.