What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil in August 2026 is trading against a market that is already pricing a very low chance of a sharp upside move in this contract, with the crowd-implied probability at 1% for a YES outcome. That sits well below the centre of analyst forecasting: Reuters’ May poll put average 2026 WTI at $84.63, while JPMorgan and Goldman have both pointed to much lower 2026 baselines in the low-to-mid $50s, and BMO has forecast about $60 for the year[12][8][9]. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook also keeps 2026 in the lower end of the range, with WTI spot price expectations materially below the high-80s and 90s levels implied by some bullish summer scenarios[1][11].

Historical and comparable cases suggest traders should read this market as a *distribution* bet rather than a clean average-price call. In late-summer oil markets, realised outcomes can move quickly on supply shocks, OPEC+ policy shifts, and inventory draws, which is why forecasts still span from the high-$40s to the mid-$80s depending on the institution and assumption set[2][3][4][5]. The main divergence is between more bearish full-year outlooks from JPMorgan, Goldman and the EIA, and more constructive summer or conflict-driven scenarios that assume tighter physical balances or disruption risk[1][7][8][9].

Catalysts into August will be the EIA’s monthly STEO updates, OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory reports, and any fresh signalling on Middle East supply routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz after Goldman cut forecasts on the back of reopening-related assumptions[1][7]. For a contract that settles on the August print, the key dependency is not just where spot trades day to day, but whether the market sees sustained inventory tightness or a relapse into oversupply before month-end[1][8][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.