Ethereum above … on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ethereum needs to be above the contract’s threshold on the Binance **ETH/USDT 1-minute noon candle** to cash Yes, so the relevant question is not the broad crypto trend but whether spot can hold above that level at a very specific timestamp. With the crowd-implied probability already at **100% Yes**, the market is effectively pricing the strike as comfortably below the current Binance reference area, while some third-party price models still place ETH in a fairly tight August band around the high-$1,800s to low-$1,900s.[2][3][4][12]

That probability is easier to read against the published short-term forecasts than against long-dated Ethereum narratives. Several forecasting pages cluster around roughly $1,900 for 10 August 2026, including CoinCheckup at $1,923.34, CoinCodex at $1,916.44, MEXC at $1,926.19, and Changelly at $1,908.23, while PrimeXBT’s broader 2026 range centres near $1,880 with an upper band around $2,090.[1][2][3][4][6] Those estimates are not exchange-specific and should not be treated as settlement targets, but they do show why a 100% reading is plausible if the strike is materially below prevailing spot expectations.[1][2][3][4][6]

For catalysts, traders should watch whether Ethereum tracks the broader risk-asset tape or breaks away on venue-specific flows, because this contract settles only on Binance’s ETH/USDT candle rather than a composite index.[8] Any abrupt move in liquidity, ETF-related headlines, or protocol/news shocks can matter more than steady analyst consensus, especially in a one-minute window where even a brief wick can decide the result.[18][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.