Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 98% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 91% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 75% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Match Winner | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 14% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 9% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 8% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs T1 Academy (+1.5) | 4% |
| Game 4 Winner | 3% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 3? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Solary (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: solary vs t1 academy (bo5) - world star challengers invitational playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Solary and T1 Academy in the World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 5:00 A…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challen… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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