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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 84% Game 1 Winner 77% Game 2 Winner 76% First Blood in Game 1? 64% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $718K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
84% 16% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
84% 16% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner84%
Game 1 Winner77%
Game 2 Winner76%
First Blood in Game 1?64%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)62%
First Blood in Game 2?60%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?55%
Any Player Penta Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?42%
O/U 2.5 Games36%
Any Player Quadra Kill35%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor30%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor30%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors29%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: ninjas in pyjamas vs lng esports (bo3) - lpl group nirvana stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and LNG Esports in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 15 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

Trade LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Gr… on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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