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Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game 1 Winner 100% Ends in Daytime 100% Both Teams Beat Roshan 100% Both Teams Destroy Barracks 100% Volume: $948K Liquidity: $1.1M Closes: 25 Sept 2026
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Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Ends in Daytime100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan100%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?100%
O/U 2.5 Games68%
Match Winner53%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)33%
Game 2 Winner31%
Any Player Ultra Kill1%
Any Player Rampage1%
First Blood in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?1%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

The Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Round 1 match between Team Nemesis and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This marke…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

Trade Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wa… on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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