Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Map 2 Winner | 70% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs UNiTY esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs UNiTY esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs UNiTY esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs UNiTY esports (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-12.5) vs UNiTY esports (+12.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs UNiTY esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs UNiTY esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: UNiTY esports (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: UNiTY esports (-6.5) vs Walczaki (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 57.5 | 0% |
Market context
Walczaki vs UNiTY esports is a best-of-three in the CCT Europe Series #6 playoffs, with the market’s 100% YES price implying the contract is effectively treated as a near-certain Walczaki win. That is materially stronger than the broader pre-match framing on the underlying event: Polymarket labels Walczaki the clear favourite, but the public tournament pages only show a ranking and experience gap rather than a runaway mismatch, with Walczaki listed around the mid-50s to mid-60s globally and UNiTY closer to the 100s.[1][2]
For context, CCT playoff BO3s tend to produce sharper price moves than group-stage matches because the longer format reduces upset variance, but not enough to make 100% a routine line unless one side is either a late substitute team or the market has already absorbed a completed result.[2][9] Comparable CCT fixtures on the schedule have been traded as ordinary favourites rather than certainty, so the current crowd-implied probability sits well above what the published team-strength gap alone would normally justify.[1][8]
The main catalysts are basic but important: confirmation the match actually starts on schedule, whether the bracket timing shifts, and whether either roster changes before the round of 16. Liquipedia and schedule trackers place the match in the playoff window on 6 August, while third-party listing pages show a live start time around 14:00 UTC, so any delay, forfeit, or re-seed would matter more here than in a group match because settlement only resolves to 50-50 if the game is not played, ends level, or is pushed beyond the contract’s seven-day window.[2][3][4]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CC… on PolyGram
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