Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Grêmio Esports’ BO3 against Procyon Gaming in the BetBoom Storm group stage has already been played and was reported as a 2-1 Grêmio win, so the contract’s 0% YES indication is consistent with a market that is effectively pricing in a settled result rather than an unresolved contest.[4][6][8] On the comparison side, there is no meaningful sportsbook-style disagreement in the material provided: public match trackers and community prediction pages all point to Grêmio as the winner, while the prediction market showing 0% for YES is just the binary reflection of that same outcome.[2][6][9][13]
For context, this is the kind of South American tier-two CS2 fixture where the pre-match edge is often modest and volatility is high, especially in BO3s that can swing on map vetoes and one-sided third maps. Grêmio’s recent sequence before this event included losses to Keyd Stars and BESTIA plus a win over paiN Academy, while Procyon arrived off a 2-0 over ODDIK Academy but with earlier defeats to METANOIA Wolves and Imperial; that profile fits a match where consensus was not overwhelmingly one-sided, even if post-result dashboards now show a clean Grêmio finish.[9][15] Strafe’s community vote also leaned Grêmio’s way, at 67.5% to 32.5%, which is the closest available analogue to analyst sentiment in the sources provided.[6]
The main catalyst for traders in markets like this is not tactical analysis so much as execution risk: official start-time changes, scoreboard confirmation, and whether a BO3 is completed under tournament rules before the seven-day deadline. Sofascore, Sports.ru and Strafe all list the match as finished, which removes most settlement uncertainty unless an exchange or contract feed is lagging behind the result pages.[1][4][6][8] If a trader is comparing venues, the useful divergence is between live-match information sources and the stale zero-price contract state: once the result is confirmed, any remaining spread is more about platform update timing than about genuine uncertainty in the underlying event.[2][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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