Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a single data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently implying a 0% chance of a “YES” result for any specific range. This binary framing clashes with the broader market reality: Polymarket traders are heavily backing the 25°C bracket at 34% probability, with 28°C as the frontrunner at 39%, suggesting the crowd expects mid-to-high 25s rather than the extreme heat some sportsbooks might price for late July.

Historical patterns for early July in Seoul show daily highs typically clustering between 25–30°C, with 27°C serving as a reliable midday anchor, while humidity often pushes the “feels like” temperature above 34°C even when the actual reading stays lower. Rainfall is frequent during the monsoon season (Jangma), which runs from late June to mid-July, and short, intense downpours can temporarily suppress temperatures before the air warms again under lingering moisture. Unlike late July or August, which often deliver the year’s most sustained heat, early July remains volatile, making a 0% implied probability for any range statistically fragile against the 39% market confidence in 28°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for the next 24 hours, particularly any shifts in cloud cover or precipitation timing that could alter the peak temperature. A recent AccuWeather forecast for Seoul in July 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 81°F to 91°F (27–33°C), with an average high of 85°F (29°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures well above the 22°C threshold implied by the current 0% line. The key dependency is whether the monsoon rains clear before midday on 2 July; if they persist, temperatures may dip toward 25°C, but if the sun breaks through, 28°C becomes highly probable, creating a clear divergence between the current crowd-implied probability and the analyst consensus on seasonal norms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.