Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle from midnight to noon local time. July represents peak summer in Shanghai, with typical daily lows in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, though the precise minimum depends on cloud cover, precipitation, and upper-air patterns during that specific 24-hour period.

Historical July records at Shanghai Pudong show lowest temperatures rarely fall below 22°C during the month, with most years clustering between 24–27°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the low will exceed the highest available temperature bracket offered, or that the market structure itself contains no viable outcome matching typical July conditions. This represents a significant divergence from meteorological norms: if the market's lowest bracket is set above 27°C, it would exclude roughly 80% of historical July minimums, creating a structural mismatch between weather climatology and market design.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July, as these systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity in late June will also influence atmospheric circulation patterns affecting Shanghai's weather on the 19th. Current long-range models remain too uncertain to refine expectations, but any tropical system tracking toward eastern China would be the primary catalyst for a lower-than-typical minimum.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.