Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's lowest daily temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory and recorded to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, though final data publication may extend beyond the immediate window. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the inherent difficulty in pricing a specific meteorological outcome more than six months ahead, where historical volatility and seasonal patterns offer limited predictive power for a single day.

July represents Hong Kong's peak summer season, with average daily minima typically ranging between 26–28°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows July temperatures rarely dip below 25°C even at their lowest point; the coldest July minima on record remain in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, occurring during occasional tropical storm passages or unusual atmospheric conditions. The current zero probability across prediction markets suggests traders view sub-25°C outcomes as sufficiently unlikely that no meaningful odds have formed, though the absence of liquidity rather than certainty drives this reading.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Western Pacific typhoon season forecast, as tropical cyclone activity represents the primary mechanism for significant temperature drops during July. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes seasonal outlooks and issues storm warnings with lead times of several days; any August or early September typhoon track projections affecting the region would inform July 13 positioning. Atmospheric pressure systems and monsoon intensity in early July will provide the most actionable signals closer to settlement, though current long-range forecasting models carry substantial uncertainty at this temporal distance.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.